The consensus among most political observers seems to be that Democrats more than likely will lose the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate in this election cycle. The consistent reasoning behind what many believe to be a definitive historical precept is that the president’s party relinquishes seats in the aftermath of midterm elections.
This has certainly been the case throughout recent history. According to FiveThirtyEight, “Since 1994, the president’s party has lost the national House popular vote in six out of seven midterm elections.” They added that the range of these losses was between six and nine percent. Given this snapshot, it’s understandable why Republicans are giddy as November approaches. Kevin McCarthy is already planning the changes he intends to make once he assumes the speakership.
Few would argue that Democrats are in for a bumpy ride when it comes to House races. However, the same analysis points out that there have been midterms since World War II in which the president’s party has avoided losing seats and on the contrary, actually gained some. Given the dynamics of the Senate map in 2022, this could be the year where the latter result could become a reality.
With the majority of seats deemed to be safe due to incumbency and/or the political environments, the battle for the Senate will be waged in the nine states that are designated toss-ups or slightly leaning to one of the parties as rated by the Cook Political Report. The wild card in all of this is President Biden’s approval ratings. While it is true that they have dipped, with the war in Ukraine, a possible emergence of a new COVID strain and other rapidly changing global events, no one can accurately predict what the political landscape will look like by the time the General Election comes around on November 8th. The states on the front line include:
1. Arizona – Mark Kelly (Incumbent) – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: August 2, 2022
Mark Kelly proved to be a quality candidate in 2020. He’s also shown himself to be an excellent senator. The winners of the last two Senate contests, Kelly’s included were elected by less than 2.5 percentage points. So, expect nothing less than another nail biter.
On the GOP side, Kelly will face one of five candidates, who have all taken off the gloves. The two most high profile are Arizona Attorney General Mark Brnovich and venture capitalist, Peter Thiel acolyte, and Trump sycophant Blake Masters. Have no doubt, there will be a lot of aspersions to be cast before voting begins.
2. Florida – Marco Rubio (Incumbent) – Rated by CPR – Leans R
Primary Date: August 23, 2022
Marco Rubio is a senator and candidate in search of a soul. His lack of clarity when it comes to principled decision-making on virtually any subject is remarkable. Yet for all of his misjudgments and sometimes delusional reasoning, he remains popular among a large segment of Florida voters. He won reelection in 2016 by eight points, which was a presidential year. Many cite Rubio’s lack of accomplishments and his inability to craft a legislative agenda as weaknesses that can open the door for his Democratic opponent.
On the other side, while polls continue to show her trailing by roughly seven points, Val Demings has several factors in her favor. A former Orlando police chief, Demings has a compelling personal story that highlights her humble beginnings, her participation in the Trump Impeachment greatly added to her visibility and name recognition, and she has raised money at a higher clip than Rubio. The fact that as an incumbent Rubio has yet to crack 50 percent in all polls adds to the uncertainty of the outcome. This is a race to watch.
3. Georgia – Raphael Warnock – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: May 24, 2022
The possible matchup between Senator Raphael Warnock and potential GOP candidate Herschel Walker could turn out to be one of the more entertaining races this fall if the current state of affairs definitively materializes. Heightening the anticipation among the political class is Donald Trump’s enthusiastic and unequivocal support of Walker’s campaign. Walker’s proneness to make controversial and sometimes inane pronouncements will surely create heartburn among the MAGA faithful. The most recent involved, evolution, apes, and people, which I won’t go into here. Google it.
A poll released last Friday showed Walker with a 60-point lead over his most serious challenger, State Agriculture Commissioner Gary Black, and two other candidates. But this scenario may be on the verge of change if several GOP activists have their way. Super PACs supporting two of his rivals plan to drop seven figures in ad buys to alert GOP voters to what they see as an unacceptable candidate. They intend to highlight his domestic abuse, run-ins with the law, and other related issues with the goal of at a minimum forcing him into a runoff.
4. Nevada – Catherine Cortez-Masto (Incumbent) – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: June 14, 2022
Having served eight years as Attorney General and the last five-plus years as the state’s U.S. Senator, Catherine Cortez Masto finds herself challenged by her low levels of name recognition due to her lack of enthusiasm for self-promotion. While there are multiple candidates in both the Democratic and GOP primaries, she is expected to easily emerge to face her expected challenger, Adam Laxalt who succeeded Cortez-Masto as Attorney General in 2014.
Complicating the race for Cortez-Masto and other Democrats seeking reelection including Governor Steve Sisolak is the decrease in the number of registered voters who identify themselves as democrats and an economy that has yet to recover from the Pandemic. Thousands of casino workers remain out of work and with rising housing, food, and gas prices, the challenge for incumbents is taxing. While the state’s economic fortunes have slightly improved recently, Cortez-Masto and senate democrats are hoping for more.
5. New Hampshire – Maggie Hassan (Incumbent) – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: September 13, 2022
In the Granite State, Senator Maggie Hassan is facing a tough reelection battle, in part due to President Biden’s upside-down popularity ratings as well as her own, which stand at 43% and 46% respectively according to a recent poll. On a more positive Hassan raised more than $4.3 million in the first quarter of 2022 and has $7.5 million cash in hand.
On the GOP side, seven candidates are seeking to challenge her in November. Among the more notable are retired Army Brig. Gen. Donald Bolduc, who is making his second primary run, state Senate President Chuck Morse, and former Londonderry town manager Kevin Smith. The most recent entry is Bitcoin magnate and Libertarian Bruce Fenton who could impact the field.
6. North Carolina – Open – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: May 17, 2022
Both parties have a large field seeking this open seat, but all of the fireworks seem to be on the GOP side. Donald Trump endorsed Rep. Ted Budd and for now, it seems to have paid off for both. According to recent polling Budd is holding a double-digit lead over former Governor Pat McCrory with former congressman Mark Walker coming in at a distant third.
On the Democratic side, it appears that former state Supreme Court Chief Justice Cheri Beasley will emerge as the winner. If that holds true, the general election matchups will offer different narratives regardless of whom Beasley faces. The same polling shows Budd ahead of Beasley head-to-head, but Beasley beating McCrory in the same scenario. Regardless, this will be a highly observed and expensive primary.
7. Ohio – Open – Rated by CPR – Leans R
Primary Date: May 3, 2022
In Ohio, the top four GOP candidates are engaged in a contest not only for votes but also for who can out grovel the other at the feet of Donald Trump. In TV ads aired by former Ohio State Treasurer, Josh Mandel, former State GOP Chair, Jane Timken, investment banker, Mike Gibbons, and best-selling author and current Trump sycophant, J. D. Vance “The Donald” is highlighted more than the candidates or their agendas. Recent polling shows that Gibbons holds a slight lead over Mandel. However, one-third of the voters are undecided.
On the Democratic side, the most recent polling showed Tim Ryan comfortably in the lead over his two primary opponents, Morgan Harper and Traci Johnson. Moreover, Ryan has a formidable fundraising advantage, so much so that he is donating $3 million dollars to down-ballot races in the state. Whether it’s Gibbons or Mandel who winds up as his opponent, Ryan will give Democrats a shot.
8. Pennsylvania – Open – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: May 17, 2022
If the polls are correct, it looks as if the Democratic candidate for the seat being vacated by Senator Pat Toomey. Lt. Governor John Fetterman has opened up a 23-point lead on his closest rival Rep. Conor Lamb, with state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta in third place. Fetterman is also raising a lot of money. His campaign reported a haul of $3.1 million in the first quarter of 2022, with a total of $15 million that has been raised. It remains to be seen if his skipping a recent non-televised debate will be an issue with voters and provide a boost to the other contenders.
On the Republican side, the candidates, like those in other states are vying for Donald Trump’s affection. The leader going down the stretch is former hedge fund executive, Dave McCormick who holds a nine-point advantage over celebrity surgeon, Mahmet Oz. Carla Sands, Trump’s former ambassador to Denmark, and two others trail polling in single digits. The transformation by McCormick from mainstream Connecticut Republican to full-blown MAGA maniac has shocked friends and former colleagues. He too also passed on a recent debate leaving the others to highlight his business ties with China.
9. Wisconsin – Ron Johnson (Incumbent) – Rated by CPR – Toss Up
Primary Date: August 9, 2022
Let’s face, it Ron Johnson the two-term senator from Wisconsin has never encountered a conspiracy theory that he didn’t like. Johnson, who is prone to outrageous utterances has switched positions on an array of issues more times than a caffeinated insomniac trying to get some sleep. Most recently it was Ukraine where he was against funding the now embattled nation before he was for it. Yet, he will be formidable because of incumbency and the expected “red wave.”
On the Democratic side, Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes leads his closest rival, Milwaukee Bucks executive-on-leave Alex Lasry, by a 38%-17% margin, with 26% of respondents undecided. This will be a very competitive election in the fall and whoever prevails to take on Johnson can count on an abundance of outside money to pour into the state. Many observers estimate that more than $100 million will be spent by both campaigns, as well as Super PACs.